Global Economic and Geopolitical Challenges Emerging in 2025 -2033
The global economic and geopolitical landscape is anticipated to face significant challenges starting from March 2025. Several factors contribute to this outlook:
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Reshaping of Global Alliances: Recent policy shifts, such as President Donald Trump’s pursuit of a minerals deal with Ukraine, indicate a redefinition of U.S. alliances. This move suggests a potential acceptance of increased Russian influence over Ukraine, which could undermine existing alliances and escalate trade tensions.
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Increased Economic Fragmentation: The potential end of the U.S.-led post-war international order may lead to more inward-looking investment strategies. Investors might retain capital within national borders due to geopolitical tensions and a shift towards national industrial policies, resulting in a fragmented global investment landscape.
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Energy Market Volatility: Policy decisions, such as the revocation of licenses for U.S. companies to produce and export Venezuelan crude, could tighten global oil supplies. This action may lead to increased oil prices and heightened volatility in energy markets.
Slowing Economic Growth: Institutions like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) have revised growth forecasts downward, citing factors such as weak external demand and ongoing conflicts. The fading of the “peace dividend” and increased defence spending at the expense of long-term investments further exacerbate the economic slowdown.
In summary, the convergence of geopolitical tensions, policy shifts, and economic challenges is poised to create a more volatile and uncertain global environment from March 2025 onwards.
