Oil Glut 2016 May Prove A Bolt From The Blue For Global Economy

This is in continution to my earlier Article “US Stocks Join Global Rout as Predicted: Economy Meltdown Inevitable https://www.astrodocanil.com/2016/01/u-s-stocks-join-global-rout-as-predicted-economy-meltdown-inevitable/ dated 16th Jan. 2016.

The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier. Earnings are down for companies that have made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission roughly two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investments in exploration and production. An estimated250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs, and manufacturing of drilling and production equipment has fallen sharply. The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has been cut roughly by more than 60 percent since the June 2014. Prices have recovered a few times last year, but a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to its lowest level since 2004. Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, pretty much the norm over the last decade.

Will Oil Glut Continue in 2016 with OPEC’s Production Policy? 

This is what is foreseen From The Planetary Positions in the Future but  is  a complicated question and it boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand also .

Let’s First see at the factors behind the supply glut in crude oil.

• In the case of US shale oil, production has grown from 0.4 million barrels per day in 2007 to 4 million barrels per day in 2014. As a result, part of the US domestic demand was taken care of by US shale oil.
• Looking at the decline in the world’s fuel consumption, the production level of oil in OPEC and non-OPEC countries wasn’t curtailed in proportion.
• OPEC countries were reluctant to cut any production levels in order to maintain their market share in oil supplies.
• Russia, one of the major oil producers, continued to pump more oil despite falling oil prices.
• There wasn’t unanimous agreement over production quotas for oil within the oil cartel. Some member countries of OPEC—namely, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait—support the policy to keep oil output high in order retain market share against non-OPEC producers. Other members—Iran and Venezuela—are in favor of cutting down production in order to avoid a further slump in oil prices.
• After Western economic sanctions on Iran were lifted in 2015 according to its nuclear accord, Iran now aims to increase its oil exports. This can lead to a further fall in oil prices.
• As forecast by analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS), if the above situation prevails in 2016 with no significant cut in oil production, oil could fall as low as $20 per barrel.
• Saudi-Iran relations

During the protests in Iran condemning the executions by Saudi Arabia, a violent crowd set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Saudi Arabia curbed its diplomatic relations with Iran on Sunday, January 3, and gave all Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave the country. Some fear that the estranged relationship between these two OPEC countries could cause a disruption in the global oil supply. So oil prices are anticipated to rise.

Investors will be keeping an eye on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF  and the stocks of Apache , Denbury Resources , QEP Resources , Chesapeake Energy , and Southwestern Energy . They’ll want to see what direction oil prices will take.

United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last several years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping.

Let us have a Brief analysis of US Production of Oil as Per the chart below

The graph below shows US crude oil production from 2008 through 2015 in terms of million barrels per day. As you can see, production grew rapidly after 2012.

Oil Prices from 1947 to 2011

Oil Prices from 1973 to 1981

The 1980s oil glut was a serious surplus of crude oil caused by falling demand following the 1970s energy crisis. The world price of oil, which had peaked in 1980 at over US$35 per barrel  fell in 1986 from $27 to below $10  The glut began in the early 1980s as a result of slowed economic activity in industrial countries (due to the crises of the 1970s, especially in 1973 and 1979) and the energy conservation spurred by high fuel prices.f oil fell from an average of $78.2 in 1981 to an average of $26.8 per barrel in 1986.

After 1980, reduced demand and increased production produced a glut on the world market. The result was a six-year decline in the price of oil, which culminated by plunging more than half in 1986 alone. Now see the Prices from 2000 onwards 

And the Prices for thwe last 3 months

 Saturn is the significator of Oil and Jupiter significator of Economy and Mercury the significator of Stock market and Physocology of the Investers 

Why Oil Prices are related to Stock Market and Economy  is due to the fact that Jupiter was afflicted badly on the 9th Jan . 2016 in Stationary position by Rahu when it ingressed over Jupiter on the same date degreewise and both aspected By Saturn.

From the above it is  clear that the Prices are falling  when the Following Parameters acquire a Special dimension.

Now see the Paksha Kundali of the 10th Jan. 2016 07-00 hrs  below 

The above chart is self Explainatory . Venus Weak since Lost in Planetary War by Saturn , Stationary Jupiter totally eclipsed by Rahu and aspected by Saturn, Mercury Retrograde on the 6th Jan. 2016 and aspected by both mars and Saturn. In navamsha Saturn, Venus, Jupiter , Mars and Rahu in Sagitarius, Mercury in Aquarius and again aspected by Saturn and both Lumanaries in Scorpio and about to Join Sagitarius Navamsha  is the Most sensitive Parameter in the Transit on the 10th Jan 2016  for Saturn influencing all the Planets in the above chart

 1.The Oil Glut was in 1980 and then Saturn had just entered Virgo  and Jupiter in Leo and in Latter Part of 1980 Jupiter also joined Saturn in Virgo, hence the sign Leo and Virgo were  was activated by Saturn and Jupiter , the same has happened in 2010 and 2011, Saturn was in Virgo and Jupiter in Pieces and even Rahu -Ketu and Mars have activated these signs till 9th Jan. 2016

2. Rahu was In Leo as well and at the time of the Oil Glut in 1980. Presently Rahu has Ingressed in Leo from Virgo on the 9th Jan. 2016

3 In 1986 Saturn was in Scorpio aspecting the Capricorn sign by 3 crucial aspect and Jupiter was in Capricorn till 1985 also aspecting Virgo sign , hence activation of  Capricorn sign , on the 12th August 2016 Both Saturn and Jupiter will be activating the capricorn sign. Saturn by 3rd aspect and Jupiter by 5th Aspect, this also gives an indication that in the year 2020 the Oil Glut will be there and Prices of Oil may take a strong hit and may touch a all time  Low , since both Jupiter and Saturn will be ingressing this sign of Capricorn.

4. Mercury the Significator for Stock market  goes in Retrogression on the 30th August 2016 at 4.58 degrees and is in Fallen stage on the 10th Sept. 2016 and becomes direct on the 22nd Sept. 2016and before that it rises helically on the 18th Sept. 2016, hence these dates are sensitive in the Scenerio for Stock Market and the Oil Prices .

5. When Saturn ingressed in Scorpio there was conjunction with Ketu at 2.05 degrees on the 12th Jan 1985, Present Circumstances Saturn is in Scorpio  aspecting Rahu and Jupiter in Leo Sensitive signs for Oil Prices, there will be degree aspect by Saturn on Rahu on the 7th-8th Oct. 2016 at this Point Jupiter will rise helically  is the most Crucial Parameter in the Future Transit for   Economy Meltdown and Crude oil Prices.At this Point on the 7th Oct. 2016 Mercury will just cross the Retrogression Point of 4.58 degrees and Longitudnal distance between Mercury and Venus will also start to reduce .

At the time of the Major Economy meltdown on the 28th Oct. 1929, 19th Oct. 1987  and 6th Oct. 2008 the following Parameters were activated and acquired a special dimansion 

1. Venus in the sign of Virgo or Libra . On the 7th Oct Venus is in Libra.
2. Longitudnal distance between Venus and Mercury minimum. On the 7th Oct. 2016 the Longitudnal distance between Mercury and venus starts to reduce to minimum.
3. Merucury Fallen, Retrograde and afflicted badly. On the 7th Oct . 2016 Mercury was fallen on the 10th Sept. 2016 at 4.58 degrees and on the 7th Oct. 2016 Mercury just Crosses the Retrogression point.
4. Jupiter In Retrogression. Hellical . On the 7th Oct. 2016 Jupiter rises helically in Virgo  and aspects the Capricorn sign
5. Jupiter and Mercury connection. On the 7th Oct. 2016 Jupiter and Mercurty in Virgo
6. Saturn in Signs Primarily in Leo , Scorpio and Ist Navamsha of Sagitarius  ( Just ingressed from Scorpio). On the 7th Oct. 2016 Saturn in Scorpio and aspecting Rahu Degreewise at 18.05 degrees 
7. Stock market Taking a hit before or after Eclipses or Sun  Influenced by Nodes. On the 5th Sept. 2016 there was degree conjunction of Rahu and Sun 
8. Capricorn  sign aspected by Saturn or Influenced by nodes . Capricorn is aspected by both Jupiter and Saturn the significator of Oil  and Oil Prices may reduce and the  the effect on the stock market. on the 7th Oct. 2016.Capricorn sign is Earthy sign and signifies Oil.
9. Saturn Transitting in the Nakshatra of Anuradha and Jyestha  and in the Present context Saturn in Jyestha Nakshatra on the 7th Oct. 2016
10. Moon in Fiery sign and in the nakshatra of  Ketu or Venus . On the 7th Oct. 2016 Moon is in Sagitarius  and Ketu naksha
11. Saturn in Transit will ingress in Capricorn navamsha on the 1st Feb. 2016 , hence the OilPrices will again take a hit and Fall to unexpected levels till it is there in Capricorn navamsha on the 21st May 2016, but will be volatile after Saturn becomes Retrograde after 24th March 2016 . Saturn in Scorpio will activate the Capricorn Navamsha 3 times like a brush , hence great Volatilty is expected in the prices of Oil and in Turn the Economy  and prices will be hit again and again after some correction . 20th Feb. 2016 Mars Ingress in watery sign will afflict Saturn  and hence Prices of Oil may rise again but Volatile .
12. Middle East War Escalations can take place and Retrogression of Saturn and aspecting Capricorn navamsha will make oil Prices move up and down 3 tiimes or even more 211 days from 20th Feb. 2016 will be critical till 18th Sept. 2016 for Oil Prices and after that they may fall again after 1st Feb. 2016 fall in the Present scenerio
13. Paksha Kundali of 1st Oct. 2016  05-41 hrs below

Needless to explain the above chart it is self Explainatory and shows Stock market Hit Possible   in the Globe , India , Asain markets, China and US . It also shows Oil Spill and Glut as well.

Adding a short analysis and influence on US, China, Russia and India on Economy, Oil Glut etc

China has Capricorn Moon and Lagna and US has Aquarius Moon and Leo Lagna are hence the Moon signs are 2/12 but the Lord is the same . Lagnas are 6/8 axis. as per the Paksha Kundali of the 24th Jan 2016 For China Sun the 8th Lord is Placed over the Lagna and Natal Moon who is also Dara Karak at 10.01 degrees and Sun the 8th Lord is Transitting over Natal Moon at exact Degrees of 9.24 and also aspected by Mars and Saturn. Transit Saturn is at 19.22 degrees and Natal Saturn in the 8th house in Leo is at 19.59 in Leo and has degeeaspect is crucial . Natal Jupiter is Placed in the sign of Sagitarius at 29.26 degrees and Transit Jupiter and Rahu in the 8th house over Lagna Lord Saturn at 28.45 degrees and 28.41 degrees respectively. Saturn in Transit is in the watery sign . Natal Rahu in Pieces Sign is activated By Ketu and the Eclipses in Oct. 2015 . Pieces sign is a Totally watery sign.
US has Leo Lagna at 29.59 degrees and we all know that Rahu and Jupiter are degree conconct over the Lagna at degrees and same navamsha , In case of US Rahu is also Placed in Watery sign, but Rahu for China is in Full watery sign . . In both cases *th Lord is in Lagna , for China Sun and for US Jupiter and both afflicted along with Moon in both cases , The affliction in case of china is more and for this reason China is also Facing a Economy Melt down, although the Economy melt down has also taken place in US after Nodes ingress over Jupiter in Lagna after 9th Jan. 2016, Both will be suffering Economy Melt down. Mars -Mercury for US dasha and for China Saturn -Rahu , Dasha for US Mars-Ketu will be critical after 12th April 2016, both can suffer, Hence in the interest of both they chould settle down their Problems , in any case Economy Melt down and hence fall in the Oil Prices are inevitable in the Long run and even in the Present State of affairs. Russia has Virgo Lagna and Saturn Retrograde in Capricorn in the 5th house is activated by Transit Saturn , hence Producung Oil in ample Quantities , at the Moment Mercury the Lagna Lord is under affliction and 8th Lord Mars will join Saturn in the 3rd house after 20th Feb. 2016, the Affliction to an the 3 countries to the 8th house is there , but in case of Russia it is the least. Russia has Moon in Capricorn and hence Russia and China go well with each other but not with US . Russia is also Running the Dasha of Rahu-Mercury in the Present context.

India is Running the Dasha of Moon-Moon and Moon is Placed in the 3rd house with 4 more Planets aspecting the 9th house alongwith Saturn and Mars is crucial for 9th house significations and I have already mentioned in all my articles regarding the same , of course there will also be developements in india but 7th house goes in affliction after 20th Feb. 2016 is a Concern specially when mars Ingresses over Natal Ketu at 5.35 degrees on the 5th March 2016 for affliction to the 7th house for terrorism, Espoinage by Foreifn sources and Neighbors, 8th and 11th Lord Jupitwr is also in affliction in the 4th house is also a matter of concern for mass happenings and the Economy of the country , Since 2nd Lord Mercury will also be in Affliction again in Sept. Oct. 2016. Terrorism cannnot be ruled out in the Countries where 8th house is afflicted  by Rahu or Mars, Needless to mention the countries .

Jyotish Acharaya anil aggarwala 30th Jan. 2016 22.30 hrs New Delhi 

Disclaimer: The above is an Astrological analysis and Not the Personal opinion of the Writer. In amy case the writter is not repsponble for any Liability if any Person inindividual capacity or a Corporate and other Organsisations investa on the above analysis , since then they will be doing it at their own risk and Liability . Any emails or any Data in this respect posted at any social media  , the writer shall in no way be responsible for it.